Bet on data.
Not Intuition.
Moneyball proved data wins. Runline is a quantitative baseball model built on peer-reviewed research and validated across multiple seasons with a 58x bankroll increase on average.
Moneyball proved data wins.
The Oakland A's bet their future on an idea no one believed in — that numbers could change the game forever. Just like Moneyball found undervalued players hidden in plain sight, the Runline model finds matchups the market and odds makers consistently misprice.
Runline is built on the same foundational baseball analytics that modern franchises use to evaluate players and create winning game matchups. The model applies modern machine learning and AI techniques to pitcher-batter dynamics to find the same edges ballclubs see, but the market doesn't.
Profitable every season — no exceptions.
In a sport where you place over 600 bets per season, a small edge per bet becomes a large edge per season. We walk-forward tested seven full MLB seasons as if they were happening real-time, using only the data available before the first pitch. Seven consecutive profitable years. Even the worst season turned $1,000 into $5,420. This is only possible in baseball — with over 2,400 games per season, the law of large numbers stops being theory and starts being reality.
Academic Foundation
| Season | Win% | $1k → | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 56.0% | $35,925 | |
| 2019 | 58.7% | $96,503 | |
| 2020COVID-shortened season — no simulation | |||
| 2021* | 58.2% | $38,801 | |
| 2022* | 57.2% | $5,420 | |
| 2023* | 56.7% | $10,093 | |
| 2024 | 57.4% | $112,098 | |
| 2025 | 57.2% | $108,244 | |
* 2021-2023 seasons had less training data due to the COVID-shortened 2020 season.
See Full Results →Results are from walk-forward simulation with zero lookahead bias and do not guarantee future profitability. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Gambling. This is strategy.
The model calculates edge, unit size is determined by the edge versus the market price. Never deviate from unit sizing and follow the model consistently. Strength is in numbers, edge compounds profitability over the entire season. Evaluate after 600 games, not 10.
Only 1,000 spots EVER.
Get on base.
Pay once, get full season access and a reserved spot for next season.
Season passes are capped to protect the edge. When subscribers act on the same line, they can move. We limit access deliberately to conserve edge. The strategy only works when betting the full season, not a week or a month.
- →600+ games all season
- → MLB Moneyline — game, line, unit size
- → Delivery upon lineup availability
- →Priority access to next season
- →Money-back guarantee if the model isn't profitable
Full refund if the model doesn't finish the season profitable — based on our published methodology, not individual execution.
Picks begin approximately 30 days into the season.
Profitable season or your money back.
The model has delivered 7 consecutive profitable seasons. If this season isn't profitable based on our published methodology, you get a full refund. Not prorated. Not minus fees. Full refund.
If the model loses, you don't pay.
How it works
- 01Season ends — we publish final model P&L
- 02If not profitable, submit refund request within 30 days
- 03Full refund processed within 14 business days
See what you unlock.
Real-time picks, bankroll tracking, and season stats — delivered daily. Every pick shows the edge, the odds, and the exact stake.
“Your goal should be to buy wins. And in order to buy wins, you need to buy runs.”
— Peter Brand, Moneyball (2011)